Tennis · Predict

De Minaur A. v Medvedev D.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Medvedev D. leads De Minaur A. 7–4 in 11 tour-level meetings.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

De Minaur A. 45%55% Medvedev D.

fair odds 2.21fair odds 1.83

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour De Minaur A. (green), to the right Medvedev D. (gold).

De Minaur A.'s chance on each surface
De Minaur A. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	45%	47%	48%
Best of 5	44%	46%	48%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	De Minaur A.	Medvedev D.
All meetings	4	7
Hard	2	7
Clay	2	0
Grand Slam	1	1
Tour Finals	0	1
1000	3	2
500	0	1
250	0	2
In finals	0	1

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	De Minaur A.	Medvedev D.
Overall	1899 (475)	1922 (617)
Hard	1887 (323)	1937 (446)
Clay	1817 (87)	1833 (86)
Grass	1836 (65)	1831 (85)
Ranking at last match	7	6

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (11)

					Score
10 Oct 2025	Shanghai Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Medvedev D. (18)	6-4 6-4	44%
10 Apr 2025	Monte Carlo Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	De Minaur A. (10)	6-2 6-2	47%
12 Nov 2024	Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Medvedev D. (4)	6-2 6-4	62%
3 Jun 2024	French Open Grand Slam4th Round	4th Round	Clay	De Minaur A. (11)	4-6 6-2 6-1 6-3	36%
30 Sept 2023	China Open 5002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Medvedev D. (3)	7-6 6-3	72%
4 Sept 2023	US Open Grand Slam4th Round	4th Round	Hard	Medvedev D. (3)	2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2	76%
11 Aug 2023	Canadian Open 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	De Minaur A. (18)	7-6 7-5	24%
2 Nov 2022	BNP Paribas Masters 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	De Minaur A. (25)	6-4 2-6 7-5	21%
5 Nov 2020	BNP Paribas Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Medvedev D. (5)	5-7 6-2 6-2	65%
21 Aug 2018	Winston-Salem Open at Wake Forest University 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Medvedev D. (57)	6-3 6-3	47%
13 Jan 2018	Sydney International 250Final	Final	Hard	Medvedev D. (84)	1-6 6-4 7-5	52%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.