Tennis · Predict

Cilic M. v Wawrinka S.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Wawrinka S. leads Cilic M. 13–2 in 15 tour-level meetings; Wawrinka S. has won the last 9.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Cilic M. 55%45% Wawrinka S.

fair odds 1.83fair odds 2.21

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Cilic M. (green), to the right Wawrinka S. (gold).

Cilic M.'s chance on each surface
Cilic M. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	55%	56%	62%
Best of 5	56%	59%	69%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Cilic M.	Wawrinka S.
All meetings	2	13
Hard	2	7
Clay	0	6
Grand Slam	1	2
Tour Finals	0	2
1000	0	5
500	0	1
250	1	3
In finals	1	1

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Cilic M.	Wawrinka S.
Overall	1771 (910)	1653 (930)
Hard	1736 (556)	1705 (529)
Clay	1707 (216)	1639 (313)
Grass	1845 (117)	1631 (68)
Ranking at last match	80	127

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (15)

					Score
30 Oct 2019	BNP Paribas Masters 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (16)	7-6 7-6	60%
7 Jun 2017	French Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Clay	Wawrinka S. (3)	6-3 6-3 6-1	68%
16 Nov 2016	Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Wawrinka S. (3)	7-6 7-6	59%
21 May 2016	Geneva Open 250Final	Final	Clay	Wawrinka S. (4)	6-4 7-6	67%
15 Oct 2015	Shanghai Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (4)	7-5 6-7 6-4	63%
14 Nov 2014	Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Wawrinka S. (4)	6-3 4-6 6-3	53%
14 Aug 2014	Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (4)	3-6 6-0 6-1	63%
16 Apr 2014	Monte Carlo Masters 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Clay	Wawrinka S. (3)	6-0 6-2	71%
15 Mar 2011	BNP Paribas Open 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (14)	7-5 6-3	58%
22 Jan 2010	Australian Open Grand Slam3rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Cilic M. (14)	4-6 6-4 6-3 6-3	62%
10 Jan 2010	Chennai Open 250Final	Final	Hard	Cilic M. (14)	7-6 7-6	56%
29 May 2008	French Open Grand Slam2nd Round	2nd Round	Clay	Wawrinka S. (10)	7-6 7-6 6-1	80%
18 Jul 2007	Mercedes Cup 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Clay	Wawrinka S. (50)	6-4 6-1	65%
9 Oct 2006	BA-CA Tennis Trophy 5001st Round	1st Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (44)	6-4 6-1	72%
26 Jul 2006	Croatia Open 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Clay	Wawrinka S. (69)	6-4 2-6 6-4	61%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.