Tennis · Predict

Cilic M. v Djokovic N.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Djokovic N. leads Cilic M. 18–2 in 20 tour-level meetings; Djokovic N. has won the last 5.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Cilic M. 13%87% Djokovic N.

fair odds 7.46fair odds 1.15

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Cilic M. (green), to the right Djokovic N. (gold).

Cilic M.'s chance on each surface
Cilic M. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	13%	15%	17%
Best of 5	8%	10%	12%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Cilic M.	Djokovic N.
All meetings	2	18
Hard	1	14
Clay	0	2
Grass	1	2
Grand Slam	0	5
Tour Finals	0	2
1000	1	7
500	1	3
250	0	1
In finals	1	2

Plus 1 walkover, not counted.

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Cilic M.	Djokovic N.
Overall	1771 (910)	2127 (1329)
Hard	1736 (556)	2127 (819)
Clay	1707 (216)	2049 (351)
Grass	1845 (117)	2145 (146)
Ranking at last match	80	5

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (21)

					Score
3 Oct 2025	Shanghai Masters 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (5)	7-6 6-4	88%
2 Oct 2022	Tel Aviv Open 250Final	Final	Hard	Djokovic N. (7)	6-3 6-4	79%
10 May 2019	Mutua Madrid Open 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Clay	Djokovic N. (1)	Walkover	–
16 Nov 2018	Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	7-6 6-2	82%
2 Nov 2018	BNP Paribas Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	4-6 6-2 6-3	80%
18 Aug 2018	Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (10)	6-4 3-6 6-3	70%
24 Jun 2018	AEGON Championships 500Final	Final	Grass	Cilic M. (6)	5-7 7-6 6-3	43%
4 Nov 2016	BNP Paribas Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Cilic M. (10)	6-4 7-6	14%
11 Sept 2015	US Open Grand SlamSemifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-0 6-1 6-2	89%
8 Jul 2015	Wimbledon Grand SlamQuarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Grass	Djokovic N. (1)	6-4 6-4 6-4	85%
17 Apr 2015	Monte Carlo Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Clay	Djokovic N. (1)	6-0 6-3	84%
10 Nov 2014	Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-1 6-1	81%
2 Jul 2014	Wimbledon Grand SlamQuarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Grass	Djokovic N. (2)	6-1 3-6 6-7 6-2 6-2	83%
30 May 2014	French Open Grand Slam3rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (2)	6-3 6-2 6-7 6-4	91%
13 Mar 2014	BNP Paribas Open 10004th Round	4th Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	1-6 6-2 6-3	83%
17 Aug 2012	Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	6-3 6-2	83%
11 Aug 2011	Rogers Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	7-5 6-2	87%
11 Oct 2009	China Open 500Final	Final	Hard	Djokovic N. (4)	6-2 7-6	72%
26 Feb 2009	Dubai Tennis Championships 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	6-3 6-4	68%
1 Sept 2008	US Open Grand Slam3rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	6-7 7-5 6-4 7-6	80%
4 Mar 2008	Dubai Tennis Championships 5001st Round	1st Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	6-4 6-3	83%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.