Alcaraz C. v Zverev A.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Alcaraz C. leads Zverev A. 7–6 in 13 tour-level meetings; Alcaraz C. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.73fair odds 2.37
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Alcaraz C. (green), to the right Zverev A. (gold).
| Alcaraz C. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 58% | 58% | 61% |
| Best of 5 | 62% | 63% | 68% |
Their record
| Alcaraz C. | Zverev A. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 6 |
| Hard | 4 | 5 |
| Clay | 3 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 3 | 2 |
| Tour Finals | 0 | 2 |
| 1000 | 4 | 0 |
| 500 | 0 | 2 |
| In finals | 2 | 0 |
Ratings now
| Alcaraz C. | Zverev A. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2225 (354) | 2066 (752) |
| Hard | 2129 (198) | 2008 (426) |
| Clay | 2171 (117) | 2028 (247) |
| Grass | 2105 (39) | 1878 (79) |
| Ranking at last match | 3 | 2 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (13)
| 30 Jan 2026 | Australian Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Alcaraz C. (1) |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Semifinals | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 15 Nov 2024 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Zverev A. (2) |
| 9 Jun 2024 | French Open Grand SlamFinal | Alcaraz C. (3) |
| 14 Mar 2024 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Quarterfinals | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Australian Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Zverev A. (6) |
| 13 Nov 2023 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Zverev A. (8) |
| 7 Sept 2023 | US Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Alcaraz C. (1) |
| 2 May 2023 | Mutua Madrid Open 10004th Round | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 31 May 2022 | French Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Zverev A. (3) |
| 8 May 2022 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Final | Alcaraz C. (9) |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Vienna Open 500Semifinals | Zverev A. (4) |
| 16 Mar 2021 | Abierto Mexicano 5001st Round | Zverev A. (7) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.