Sabalenka A. v Sakkari M.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sabalenka A. leads Sakkari M. 7–3 in 10 tour-level meetings; Sabalenka A. has won the last 3.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.16fair odds 7.22
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Sabalenka A. (green), to the right Sakkari M. (gold).
| Sabalenka A. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 86% | 83% | 81% |
| Best of 5 | 91% | 88% | 86% |
Their record
| Sabalenka A. | Sakkari M. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 3 |
| Hard | 6 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 2 |
| 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| Premier | 2 | 1 |
| 500 | 2 | 0 |
Ratings now
| Sabalenka A. | Sakkari M. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2117 (552) | 1738 (470) |
| Hard | 2123 (364) | 1732 (291) |
| Clay | 1996 (127) | 1714 (123) |
| Grass | 1853 (61) | 1618 (56) |
| Ranking at last match | 2 | 33 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (10)
| 30 Oct 2023 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 4 May 2023 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Semifinals | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 17 Mar 2023 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Semifinals | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 3 Nov 2022 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sakkari M. (5) |
| 16 Nov 2021 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sakkari M. (6) |
| 12 Jan 2021 | Abu Dhabi WTA Women's Tennis Open 500Semifinals | Sabalenka A. (10) |
| 26 Feb 2020 | Qatar Total Open Premier3rd Round | Sabalenka A. (13) |
| 18 Feb 2020 | Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Premier1st Round | Sabalenka A. (13) |
| 22 Oct 2019 | WTA Elite Trophy 500Round Robin | Sabalenka A. (14) |
| 15 Aug 2019 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open Premier3rd Round | Sakkari M. (33) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.