Rybakina E. v Swiatek I.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Swiatek I. leads Rybakina E. 7–6 in 13 tour-level meetings; Swiatek I. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.59fair odds 2.71
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Rybakina E. (green), to the right Swiatek I. (gold).
| Rybakina E. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 63% | 54% | 55% |
| Best of 5 | 66% | 49% | 52% |
Their record
| Rybakina E. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 7 |
| Hard | 4 | 5 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 0 |
| 1000 | 2 | 5 |
| 500 | 1 | 0 |
| 250 | 0 | 1 |
| In finals | 0 | 2 |
Ratings now
| Rybakina E. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2092 (429) | 2046 (417) |
| Hard | 2115 (279) | 2019 (250) |
| Clay | 1927 (97) | 2051 (130) |
| Grass | 1783 (53) | 1876 (37) |
| Ranking at last match | 2 | 8 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (13)
| 21 Aug 2026 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Quarterfinals | Swiatek I. (5) |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Canadian Open 1000Final | Swiatek I. (8) |
| 28 Jan 2026 | Australian Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Rybakina E. (5) |
| 3 Nov 2025 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Rybakina E. (6) |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Semifinals | Swiatek I. (3) |
| 1 Jun 2025 | French Open Grand Slam4th Round | Swiatek I. (5) |
| 13 Feb 2025 | Qatar Open 1000Quarterfinals | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 500Semifinals | Rybakina E. (4) |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Qatar Open 1000Final | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 17 May 2023 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Quarterfinals | Rybakina E. (6) |
| 18 Mar 2023 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Semifinals | Rybakina E. (10) |
| 22 Jan 2023 | Australian Open Grand Slam4th Round | Rybakina E. (25) |
| 24 Sept 2021 | Ostrava Open 250Quarterfinals | Swiatek I. (6) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.