Tennis · Predict

Rybakina E. v Sabalenka A.

ATPWTA

Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Sabalenka A. leads Rybakina E. 10–8 in 18 tour-level meetings.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Rybakina E. 49%51% Sabalenka A.

fair odds 2.06fair odds 1.95

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Rybakina E. (green), to the right Sabalenka A. (gold).

Rybakina E.'s chance on each surface
Rybakina E. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	49%	46%	46%
Best of 5	48%	44%	44%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Rybakina E.	Sabalenka A.
All meetings	8	10
Hard	8	7
Clay	0	1
Grass	0	2
Grand Slam	2	2
Tour Finals	2	1
1000	2	4
Premier	1	1
500	1	2
In finals	5	2

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Rybakina E.	Sabalenka A.
Overall	2092 (429)	2117 (552)
Hard	2115 (279)	2123 (364)
Clay	1927 (97)	1996 (127)
Grass	1783 (53)	1853 (61)
Ranking at last match	2	2

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (18)

					Score
12 Sept 2026	US Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Hard	Rybakina E. (2)	6-4 5-7 6-2	47%
27 Mar 2026	Miami Open 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (1)	6-4 6-3	59%
15 Mar 2026	BNP Paribas Open 1000Final	Final	Hard	Sabalenka A. (1)	3-6 6-3 7-6	60%
31 Jan 2026	Australian Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Hard	Rybakina E. (5)	6-4 4-6 6-4	36%
8 Nov 2025	WTA Finals Tour FinalsFinal	Final	Hard	Rybakina E. (6)	6-3 7-6	33%
10 Oct 2025	Wuhan Open 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (1)	6-3 6-3	72%
15 Aug 2025	Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Rybakina E. (10)	6-1 6-4	28%
20 Jun 2025	German Open 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Grass	Sabalenka A. (1)	7-6 3-6 7-6	66%
6 Nov 2024	WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Rybakina E. (5)	6-4 3-6 6-1	33%
2 May 2024	Mutua Madrid Open 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Clay	Sabalenka A. (2)	1-6 7-5 7-6	56%
7 Jan 2024	Brisbane International 500Final	Final	Hard	Rybakina E. (4)	6-0 6-3	43%
3 Nov 2023	WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Sabalenka A. (1)	6-2 3-6 6-3	60%
6 Oct 2023	China Open PremierQuarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Rybakina E. (5)	7-5 6-2	38%
19 Mar 2023	BNP Paribas Open 1000Final	Final	Hard	Rybakina E. (10)	7-6 6-4	36%
28 Jan 2023	Australian Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Hard	Sabalenka A. (5)	4-6 6-3 6-4	65%
5 Jul 2021	Wimbledon Grand Slam4th Round	4th Round	Grass	Sabalenka A. (4)	6-3 4-6 6-3	62%
11 Jan 2021	Abu Dhabi WTA Women's Tennis Open 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (10)	6-4 4-6 6-3	58%
26 Sept 2019	Wuhan Open PremierQuarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (14)	6-3 1-6 6-1	63%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.