Pegula J. v Swiatek I.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Swiatek I. leads Pegula J. 7–5 in 12 tour-level meetings.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.83fair odds 2.20
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Pegula J. (green), to the right Swiatek I. (gold).
| Pegula J. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 55% | 46% | 52% |
| Best of 5 | 54% | 38% | 50% |
Their record
| Pegula J. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 5 | 7 |
| Hard | 4 | 5 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| Tour Finals | 0 | 1 |
| 1000 | 2 | 2 |
| 500 | 0 | 1 |
| 250 | 2 | 1 |
| In finals | 1 | 2 |
Ratings now
| Pegula J. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2038 (436) | 2046 (417) |
| Hard | 2013 (309) | 2019 (250) |
| Clay | 1837 (82) | 2051 (130) |
| Grass | 1806 (45) | 1876 (37) |
| Ranking at last match | 3 | 8 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (12)
| 22 Aug 2026 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Semifinals | Pegula J. (3) |
| 13 May 2026 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Quarterfinals | Swiatek I. (3) |
| 28 Jun 2025 | Bad Homburg Open 250Final | Pegula J. (3) |
| 5 Sept 2024 | US Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Pegula J. (6) |
| 6 Nov 2023 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsFinal | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Canadian Open 1000Semifinals | Pegula J. (3) |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Qatar Open 500Final | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 15 Oct 2022 | San Diego Open 250Semifinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 8 Sept 2022 | US Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 1 Jun 2022 | French Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 1 Apr 2022 | Miami Open 1000Semifinals | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 31 Jul 2019 | Citi Open 2502nd Round | Pegula J. (79) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.