Pegula J. v Sabalenka A.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sabalenka A. leads Pegula J. 10–4 in 14 tour-level meetings.
Who wins?
fair odds 2.55fair odds 1.64
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Pegula J. (green), to the right Sabalenka A. (gold).
| Pegula J. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 39% | 38% | 42% |
| Best of 5 | 36% | 33% | 41% |
Their record
| Pegula J. | Sabalenka A. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 4 | 10 |
| Hard | 3 | 7 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 4 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 2 |
| 1000 | 1 | 4 |
| Premier | 1 | 0 |
| 500 | 1 | 0 |
| In finals | 0 | 3 |
Ratings now
| Pegula J. | Sabalenka A. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2038 (436) | 2117 (552) |
| Hard | 2013 (309) | 2123 (364) |
| Clay | 1837 (82) | 1996 (127) |
| Grass | 1806 (45) | 1853 (61) |
| Ranking at last match | 3 | 2 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (14)
| 11 Sept 2026 | US Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 20 Jun 2026 | German Open 500Semifinals | Pegula J. (4) |
| 4 Nov 2025 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 11 Oct 2025 | Wuhan Open 1000Semifinals | Pegula J. (6) |
| 5 Sept 2025 | US Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Miami Open 1000Final | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 7 Sept 2024 | US Open Grand SlamFinal | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 19 Aug 2024 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Final | Sabalenka A. (3) |
| 31 Oct 2023 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Pegula J. (5) |
| 4 Nov 2022 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sabalenka A. (7) |
| 12 May 2022 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 10003rd Round | Sabalenka A. (8) |
| 4 May 2021 | Mutua Madrid Open 10003rd Round | Sabalenka A. (7) |
| 29 Sept 2020 | French Open Grand Slam1st Round | Sabalenka A. (12) |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open Premier3rd Round | Pegula J. (83) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.