Ostapenko J. v Pliskova Ka.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Ostapenko J. leads Pliskova Ka. 6–5 in 11 tour-level meetings; Ostapenko J. has won the last 3.
Who wins?
fair odds 2.03fair odds 1.97
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Ostapenko J. (green), to the right Pliskova Ka. (gold).
| Ostapenko J. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 49% | 53% | 55% |
| Best of 5 | 47% | 53% | 58% |
Their record
| Ostapenko J. | Pliskova Ka. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 5 |
| Hard | 5 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 0 |
| 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Premier | 1 | 2 |
| 500 | 2 | 1 |
Ratings now
| Ostapenko J. | Pliskova Ka. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1756 (511) | 1790 (671) |
| Hard | 1670 (309) | 1741 (443) |
| Clay | 1765 (120) | 1759 (139) |
| Grass | 1804 (82) | 1740 (89) |
| Ranking at last match | 32 | 57 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (11)
| 4 Jan 2024 | Brisbane International 5003rd Round | Ostapenko J. (12) |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 10001st Round | Ostapenko J. (20) |
| 3 Jan 2023 | Adelaide International 1 5001st Round | Ostapenko J. (18) |
| 14 May 2021 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Quarterfinals | Pliskova Ka. (9) |
| 22 Apr 2021 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 5002nd Round | Pliskova Ka. (9) |
| 1 Oct 2020 | French Open Grand Slam2nd Round | Ostapenko J. (43) |
| 28 Sept 2019 | China Open Premier1st Round | Ostapenko J. (73) |
| 27 Apr 2018 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix PremierQuarterfinals | Pliskova Ka. (6) |
| 26 Oct 2017 | BNP Paribas WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Ostapenko J. (7) |
| 21 Jan 2017 | Australian Open Grand Slam3rd Round | Pliskova Ka. (5) |
| 16 Aug 2016 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open Premier2nd Round | Pliskova Ka. (17) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.