Mertens E. v Sabalenka A.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sabalenka A. leads Mertens E. 10–2 in 12 tour-level meetings; Sabalenka A. has won the last 9.
Who wins?
fair odds 6.34fair odds 1.19
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Mertens E. (green), to the right Sabalenka A. (gold).
| Mertens E. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 16% | 20% | 25% |
| Best of 5 | 10% | 15% | 22% |
Their record
| Mertens E. | Sabalenka A. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 2 | 10 |
| Hard | 1 | 5 |
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 4 |
| 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| Premier | 1 | 2 |
| 500 | 0 | 2 |
| 250 | 1 | 0 |
| In finals | 1 | 0 |
Ratings now
| Mertens E. | Sabalenka A. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1804 (516) | 2117 (552) |
| Hard | 1729 (323) | 2123 (364) |
| Clay | 1747 (120) | 1996 (127) |
| Grass | 1746 (73) | 1853 (61) |
| Ranking at last match | 19 | 2 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (12)
| 6 Jul 2025 | Wimbledon Grand Slam4th Round | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Mutua Madrid Open 10003rd Round | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 500Quarterfinals | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 2 Sept 2024 | US Open Grand Slam4th Round | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Australian Open Grand Slam3rd Round | Sabalenka A. (5) |
| 5 Sept 2021 | US Open Grand Slam4th Round | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 5 May 2021 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Quarterfinals | Sabalenka A. (7) |
| 19 Feb 2020 | Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Premier2nd Round | Sabalenka A. (13) |
| 25 Oct 2019 | WTA Elite Trophy 500Round Robin | Sabalenka A. (14) |
| 10 Aug 2018 | Rogers Cup Premier3rd Round | Mertens E. (15) |
| 27 Jun 2018 | Eastbourne International Premier3rd Round | Sabalenka A. (45) |
| 15 Apr 2018 | Samsung Open 250Final | Mertens E. (20) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.