Kasatkina D. v Sabalenka A.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sabalenka A. leads Kasatkina D. 8–2 in 10 tour-level meetings; Sabalenka A. has won the last 5.
Who wins?
fair odds 10.67fair odds 1.10
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Kasatkina D. (green), to the right Sabalenka A. (gold).
| Kasatkina D. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 9% | 14% | 16% |
| Best of 5 | 5% | 10% | 12% |
Their record
| Kasatkina D. | Sabalenka A. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 2 | 8 |
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 4 |
| 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| Premier | 1 | 0 |
| 500 | 1 | 2 |
Ratings now
| Kasatkina D. | Sabalenka A. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1684 (548) | 2117 (552) |
| Hard | 1658 (345) | 2123 (364) |
| Clay | 1727 (139) | 1996 (127) |
| Grass | 1663 (64) | 1853 (61) |
| Ranking at last match | 84 | 2 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (10)
| 30 May 2026 | French Open Grand Slam3rd Round | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 20 Jun 2024 | German Open 5002nd Round | Sabalenka A. (3) |
| 5 Jan 2024 | Brisbane International 500Quarterfinals | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 5 Sept 2023 | US Open Grand Slam4th Round | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 10003rd Round | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 5 Aug 2022 | Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic 500Quarterfinals | Kasatkina D. (12) |
| 2 May 2021 | Mutua Madrid Open 10002nd Round | Sabalenka A. (7) |
| 10 Feb 2021 | Australian Open Grand Slam2nd Round | Sabalenka A. (7) |
| 1 Oct 2020 | French Open Grand Slam2nd Round | Sabalenka A. (12) |
| 1 Oct 2019 | China Open Premier2nd Round | Kasatkina D. (45) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.