Kasatkina D. v Keys M.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Keys M. leads Kasatkina D. 9–2 in 11 tour-level meetings; Keys M. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 3.63fair odds 1.38
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Kasatkina D. (green), to the right Keys M. (gold).
| Kasatkina D. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 28% | 31% | 29% |
| Best of 5 | 23% | 28% | 24% |
Their record
| Kasatkina D. | Keys M. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 2 | 9 |
| Hard | 1 | 8 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| Premier | 0 | 4 |
| 500 | 1 | 3 |
| 250 | 1 | 1 |
| In finals | 0 | 1 |
Ratings now
| Kasatkina D. | Keys M. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1684 (548) | 1908 (578) |
| Hard | 1658 (345) | 1850 (350) |
| Clay | 1727 (139) | 1831 (145) |
| Grass | 1663 (64) | 1839 (83) |
| Ranking at last match | 84 | 24 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (11)
| 9 Jan 2025 | Adelaide International 500Quarterfinals | Keys M. (20) |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Eastbourne International 500Final | Keys M. (25) |
| 7 Apr 2023 | Charleston Open 500Quarterfinals | Kasatkina D. (8) |
| 14 Oct 2022 | San Diego Open 2502nd Round | Keys M. (18) |
| 6 Jan 2022 | Melbourne Summer Set 2 2502nd Round | Kasatkina D. (26) |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Australian Open Grand Slam1st Round | Keys M. (11) |
| 17 Sept 2019 | Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis Tournament Premier1st Round | Keys M. (16) |
| 14 Aug 2019 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open Premier2nd Round | Keys M. (18) |
| 31 Oct 2018 | WTA Elite Trophy 500Round Robin | Keys M. (16) |
| 16 Aug 2017 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open Premier2nd Round | Keys M. (17) |
| 28 Sept 2016 | Wuhan Open Premier3rd Round | Keys M. (9) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.