Gauff C. v Swiatek I.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Swiatek I. leads Gauff C. 11–3 in 14 tour-level meetings; Gauff C. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.91fair odds 2.09
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Gauff C. (green), to the right Swiatek I. (gold).
| Gauff C. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 52% | 49% | 47% |
| Best of 5 | 52% | 46% | 43% |
Their record
| Gauff C. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 3 | 11 |
| Hard | 2 | 6 |
| Clay | 1 | 5 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 2 |
| 1000 | 2 | 4 |
| Premier | 0 | 1 |
| 250 | 0 | 1 |
| In finals | 0 | 1 |
Ratings now
| Gauff C. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2051 (392) | 2046 (417) |
| Hard | 2019 (250) | 2019 (250) |
| Clay | 1976 (102) | 2051 (130) |
| Grass | 1746 (40) | 1876 (37) |
| Ranking at last match | 4 | 8 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (14)
| 1 May 2025 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Semifinals | Gauff C. (4) |
| 5 Nov 2024 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Gauff C. (3) |
| 6 Jun 2024 | French Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 16 May 2024 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Semifinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 1 Nov 2023 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 7 Oct 2023 | China Open PremierSemifinals | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Semifinals | Gauff C. (7) |
| 7 Jun 2023 | French Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 24 Feb 2023 | Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships 1000Semifinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 6 Nov 2022 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 15 Oct 2022 | San Diego Open 250Quarterfinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 4 Jun 2022 | French Open Grand SlamFinal | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 28 Mar 2022 | Miami Open 10004th Round | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 15 May 2021 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Semifinals | Swiatek I. (15) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.