Tennis · Predict

Gauff C. v Sabalenka A.

ATPWTA

Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Sabalenka A. leads Gauff C. 7–6 in 13 tour-level meetings; Sabalenka A. has won the last 2.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Gauff C. 39%61% Sabalenka A.

fair odds 2.54fair odds 1.65

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Gauff C. (green), to the right Sabalenka A. (gold).

Gauff C.'s chance on each surface
Gauff C. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	39%	43%	40%
Best of 5	36%	43%	36%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Gauff C.	Sabalenka A.
All meetings	6	7
Hard	4	5
Clay	2	2
Grand Slam	2	1
Tour Finals	1	1
1000	2	4
250	1	1
In finals	3	2

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Gauff C.	Sabalenka A.
Overall	2051 (392)	2117 (552)
Hard	2019 (250)	2123 (364)
Clay	1976 (102)	1996 (127)
Grass	1746 (40)	1853 (61)
Ranking at last match	4	2

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (13)

					Score
28 Mar 2026	Miami Open 1000Final	Final	Hard	Sabalenka A. (1)	6-2 4-6 6-3	69%
6 Nov 2025	WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Sabalenka A. (1)	7-6 6-2	63%
7 Jun 2025	French Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Clay	Gauff C. (2)	6-7 6-2 6-4	41%
3 May 2025	Mutua Madrid Open 1000Final	Final	Clay	Sabalenka A. (1)	6-3 7-6	62%
8 Nov 2024	WTA Finals Tour FinalsFinal	Final	Hard	Gauff C. (3)	7-6 6-3	39%
12 Oct 2024	Wuhan Open 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (2)	1-6 6-4 6-4	58%
25 Jan 2024	Australian Open Grand SlamSemifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (2)	7-6 6-4	50%
9 Sept 2023	US Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Hard	Gauff C. (6)	2-6 6-3 6-2	45%
15 Mar 2023	BNP Paribas Open 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Sabalenka A. (2)	6-4 6-0	59%
11 Aug 2022	Canadian Open 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Gauff C. (11)	7-5 4-6 7-6	50%
13 May 2021	Internazionali BNL d'Italia 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Gauff C. (35)	7-5 6-3	28%
22 Oct 2020	Ostrava Open 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Clay	Sabalenka A. (12)	1-6 7-5 7-6	58%
12 Aug 2020	Top Seed Open 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Gauff C. (53)	7-6 4-6 6-4	32%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.