Gauff C. v Pegula J.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Gauff C. and Pegula J. are level at 5–5 in 10 tour-level meetings; Gauff C. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 2.04fair odds 1.96
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
Bars to the left favour Gauff C. (green), to the right Pegula J. (gold).
| Gauff C. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 49% | 55% | 46% |
| Best of 5 | 49% | 59% | 44% |
Their record
| Gauff C. | Pegula J. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 5 | 5 |
| Hard | 3 | 4 |
| Grass | 2 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 2 |
| 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| 500 | 1 | 2 |
| In finals | 2 | 0 |
Ratings now
| Gauff C. | Pegula J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2051 (392) | 2038 (436) |
| Hard | 2019 (250) | 2013 (309) |
| Clay | 1976 (102) | 1837 (82) |
| Grass | 1746 (40) | 1806 (45) |
| Ranking at last match | 4 | 3 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (10)
| 24 Aug 2026 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Final | Gauff C. (4) |
| 7 Jul 2026 | Wimbledon Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Gauff C. (7) |
| 2 Nov 2025 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Pegula J. (5) |
| 12 Oct 2025 | Wuhan Open 1000Final | Gauff C. (3) |
| 3 Nov 2024 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Gauff C. (3) |
| 23 Jun 2024 | German Open 500Semifinals | Pegula J. (5) |
| 4 Nov 2023 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsSemifinals | Pegula J. (5) |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Canadian Open 1000Quarterfinals | Pegula J. (3) |
| 29 Jun 2023 | Eastbourne International 500Quarterfinals | Gauff C. (7) |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships 5001st Round | Pegula J. (14) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.