Alexandrova E. v Ostapenko J.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Ostapenko J. leads Alexandrova E. 6–4 in 10 tour-level meetings; Ostapenko J. has won the last 5.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.77fair odds 2.30
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Alexandrova E. (green), to the right Ostapenko J. (gold).
| Alexandrova E. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 57% | 49% | 51% |
| Best of 5 | 59% | 45% | 49% |
Their record
| Alexandrova E. | Ostapenko J. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 4 | 6 |
| Hard | 2 | 5 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
| 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Premier | 1 | 0 |
| 500 | 0 | 4 |
| 250 | 2 | 1 |
| In finals | 1 | 1 |
Ratings now
| Alexandrova E. | Ostapenko J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1778 (435) | 1756 (511) |
| Hard | 1747 (268) | 1670 (309) |
| Clay | 1667 (101) | 1765 (120) |
| Grass | 1749 (66) | 1804 (82) |
| Ranking at last match | 19 | 32 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (10)
| 10 Feb 2026 | Qatar Open 10002nd Round | Ostapenko J. (24) |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 500Semifinals | Ostapenko J. (24) |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Ladies Linz Open 500Final | Ostapenko J. (12) |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Adelaide International 500Semifinals | Ostapenko J. (12) |
| 12 Sept 2023 | San Diego Open 5001st Round | Ostapenko J. (16) |
| 25 Sept 2022 | Korea Open 250Final | Alexandrova E. (24) |
| 28 Apr 2022 | Mutua Madrid Open 10001st Round | Alexandrova E. (45) |
| 12 Oct 2019 | Generali Ladies Linz 250Semifinals | Ostapenko J. (72) |
| 26 Jun 2019 | Eastbourne International Premier3rd Round | Alexandrova E. (52) |
| 21 Sept 2018 | Korea Open 2502nd Round | Alexandrova E. (122) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.