GW8 preview 2026/27

Published Fri 23 Oct · version 7 · locked at the deadline

Deadline Fri 23 Oct, 18:30. Locked at the deadline: the projections as they stood before kick-off.

This gameweek

Haaland leads the captaincy table on 7.5 projected points and a 24% chance of outscoring the other seven.
The most one-sided fixture: Arsenal against Everton, 2.2 goals expected for Arsenal.
6 teams play this gameweek on three days' rest or less after a midweek match: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Sunderland.
Calvert-Lewin (Leeds, 22.8% owned): Foot injury - 50% chance of playing.

What’s changed since GW7

Availability

Availability changes since the last deadline
	Change
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	available → doubtful Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
Szoboszlai Liverpool	doubtful → injured Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Schade Brentford	doubtful → available
Isak Liverpool	doubtful → available
Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest	doubtful → available
Saka Arsenal	available → injured Thigh injury - Unknown return date
O'Reilly Manchester City	available → doubtful Back injury - 75% chance of playing
Semenyo Manchester City	available → injured Knee injury - Unknown return date
Gakpo Liverpool	doubtful → available
Brobbey Sunderland	available → doubtful Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Shaw Manchester United	doubtful → injured Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Pedro Porro Tottenham	injured → available
Martinez Chelsea	available → injured Head injury - Unknown return date
Manzambi Aston Villa	available → doubtful Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Scott Bournemouth	injured → injured Thigh injury - Expected back 8 Nov
Mykolenko Everton	doubtful → available
Branthwaite Everton	doubtful → available
Elanga Newcastle	injured → doubtful Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Stach Leeds	available → doubtful Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
Janelt Brentford	available → suspended Suspended until 31 Oct
Frimpong Liverpool	available → injured Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
A.García Aston Villa	available → unavailable Has joined Getafe on loan for the rest of the season
Robinson Fulham	doubtful → available
Mateta Crystal Palace	injured → available
Rashford Manchester United	available → doubtful Hip injury - 75% chance of playing

Prices

Price changes since the last deadline

João Pedro Chelsea	£7.8m	£7.9m	73.8%
Calafiori Arsenal	£5.9m	£6.0m	54.8%
Rogers Chelsea	£7.9m	£8.0m	49.7%
Groß Brighton	£6.1m	£6.2m	46.3%
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.2m	£5.3m	42.1%
Cherki Manchester City	£7.9m	£8.0m	39.3%
Palmer Chelsea	£9.7m	£9.8m	28.5%
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.0m	£6.1m	22.8%
Mbeumo Manchester United	£7.8m	£7.9m	21.8%
Virgil Liverpool	£6.5m	£6.4m	15.1%
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.1m	£6.2m	13.3%
Wissa Newcastle	£6.2m	£6.1m	12.6%
Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest	£8.0m	£7.9m	12.4%
Diop Ipswich	£4.0m	£3.9m	10.9%
Maguire Manchester United	£4.8m	£4.7m	6.4%
Hughes Crystal Palace	£4.4m	£4.3m	6.1%
Jacquet Liverpool	£5.0m	£5.1m	4.2%
Doku Manchester City	£7.4m	£7.5m	3.4%
Gyökeres Arsenal	£7.1m	£7.0m	3.1%
Manzambi Aston Villa	£5.9m	£6.0m	3%
Aina Nottingham Forest	£4.4m	£4.3m	1.7%
Robinson Fulham	£4.5m	£4.4m	1.3%
Khusanov Manchester City	£5.4m	£5.3m	1.2%

Set-piece takers: no change in FPL’s first choices.
Model changes:
- Thu 22 Oct: FPL reviews use the deadline snapshot
- Thu 22 Oct: projections frozen at kick-off, FPL news refreshed before each run
- Thu 22 Oct: team sheets scaled up to 11 starters and 1 keeper
- Thu 22 Oct: League One and League Two: last legacy_pre_v1 fits retired

Fixtures

Expected goals for each side, read off the betting market where it prices the match, with each side’s chance of a clean sheet and FPL’s difficulty rating (FDR). Why both: xG or FDR?

Fixtures: expected goals, clean-sheet chance and FDR
			FDR
Ipswich v Nottingham Forest	1.3–1.5	23%/27%	3/2
Aston Villa v Manchester City	1.1–2.0	14%/32%	4/3
Coventry v Fulham	1.3–1.5	23%/27%	2/2
Arsenal v Everton	2.2–0.7	49%/11%	3/5
Chelsea v Tottenham	1.9–1.2	29%/14%	2/4
Manchester United v Bournemouth	1.9–1.2	31%/15%	3/4
Crystal Palace v Newcastle	1.4–1.6	19%/24%	3/3
Hull v Brentford	1.0–1.9	14%/36%	3/2
Liverpool v Brighton	1.8–1.3	28%/16%	3/4
Sunderland v Leeds	1.1–1.2	31%/33%	3/3

Midweek matches

Teams with a cup or European match before their GW8 game, and the rest in between. The projections don’t adjust start chances for this yet, so regular starters at teams on three days’ rest may be a little high. Each reflection measures whether they were rotated.

Teams with a cup or European match before their next league match

Arsenal	Wed 21 Oct: Bayern München (a) Champions League	Sat 15:00: Everton (h)	3 days
Aston Villa	Wed 21 Oct: Viking (h) Champions League	Sat 12:30: Manchester City (h)	3 days
Bournemouth	Thu 22 Oct: AC Milan (h) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Manchester United (a)	3 days
Brighton	Thu 22 Oct: Jablonec (a) Conference League	Sun 14:00: Liverpool (a)	3 days
Crystal Palace	Thu 22 Oct: Besiktas (a) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Newcastle (h)	3 days
Sunderland	Thu 22 Oct: Lech Poznan (a) Europa League	Sun 16:30: Leeds (h)	3 days
Manchester City	Tue 20 Oct: AEK Athens (h) Champions League	Sat 12:30: Aston Villa (a)	4 days
Manchester United	Wed 21 Oct: Como (a) Champions League	Sun 14:00: Bournemouth (h)	4 days
Liverpool	Tue 20 Oct: Villarreal (h) Champions League	Sun 14:00: Brighton (h)	5 days

Coming up: Carabao Cup before GW9 (13 teams, Tue 27 Oct–Thu 29 Oct); Champions League and Conference League and Europa League before GW10 (9 teams, Tue 3 Nov–Thu 5 Nov).

Captaincy

The eight highest projections, and how often each scores the most of the eight across 20,000 simulated gameweeks (team goals shared, so teammates rise and fall together). The top projection is the best pick on average, but rarely by much: see should you always captain the top pick.

Captaincy: projected points and chance of the top score

Haaland Manchester City4 days’ rest	7.5	24%	2%	–	97%	77.4%
Ødegaard Arsenal3 days’ rest	6.2	15%	11%	–	94%	18.3%
Isak Liverpool5 days’ rest	6.1	13%	6%	–	95%	13.8%
Havertz Arsenal3 days’ rest	5.6	9%	12%	4	93%	6%
Palmer Chelsea	5.5	12%	8%	1	94%	28.2%
B.Fernandes Manchester United4 days’ rest	5.4	10%	5%	5	97%	26.6%
Thiago Brentford	5.3	9%	3%	–	98%	8.8%
Mbeumo Manchester United4 days’ rest	5.3	9%	5%	–	96%	21.6%

Best picks by position

Projected points for this gameweek, the next five and the next ten, ranked on the next five.

Goalkeepers

Best GK picks

Raya Arsenal	£6.1m	5.1	23.6	47.3
Trafford Leeds	£5.0m	4.3	19.7	38.0
Kelleher Brentford	£5.0m	4.2	18.3	35.3
Donnarumma Manchester City	£5.5m	3.6	18.2	37.2
Suzuki Aston Villa	£5.0m	2.8	17.3	35.7
Tzolakis Hull	£4.7m	3.4	16.9	33.1
Lammens Manchester United	£4.9m	3.7	16.8	34.6
Kinsky Tottenham	£4.5m	2.5	16.7	32.8

Defenders

Best DEF picks

Calafiori Arsenal	£6.0m	4.5	20.7	41.1
Gabriel Arsenal	£7.9m	4.5	20.3	40.4
Bogle Leeds	£4.7m	4.0	18.8	36.1
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.3m	3.0	18.6	39.4
Guéhi Manchester City	£6.0m	3.6	17.7	36.6
Muharemović Leeds	£5.0m	3.8	17.7	34.0
Thomas Coventry	£4.0m	3.5	17.2	32.5
Vuskovic Brighton	£5.1m	2.8	16.6	35.0

Midfielders

Best MID picks

Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.8m	6.2	28.6	54.4
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.2m	4.9	28.5	57.4
Palmer Chelsea	£9.8m	5.5	25.5	51.6
B.Fernandes Manchester United	£11.8m	5.4	25.4	51.9
Mbeumo Manchester United	£7.9m	5.3	24.7	50.3
Groß Brighton	£6.2m	4.2	24.2	49.3
Rogers Chelsea	£8.0m	4.9	23.3	47.3
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	4.3	22.3	44.3

Forwards

Best FWD picks

Haaland Manchester City	£15.7m	7.5	36.1	75.2
Isak Liverpool	£9.0m	6.1	28.1	57.2
Havertz Arsenal	£7.5m	5.6	27.1	52.8
Barry Everton	£5.7m	3.6	24.7	50.0
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.6m	4.9	24.5	48.0
João Pedro Chelsea	£7.9m	5.2	24.1	49.2
Thiago Brentford	£7.8m	5.3	23.5	46.1
Evanilson Bournemouth	£6.1m	4.0	22.7	46.0

Value

Most projected points per million over five gameweeks

Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.2m	4.9	28.5	57.4	4.60
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.6m	4.9	24.5	48.0	4.38
Barry Everton	£5.7m	3.6	24.7	50.0	4.33
Thomas Coventry	£4.0m	3.5	17.2	32.5	4.30
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.8m	6.2	28.6	54.4	4.21
Zirkzee Manchester United	£5.3m	4.8	21.2	38.7	4.00
Bogle Leeds	£4.7m	4.0	18.8	36.1	4.00
Trafford Leeds	£5.0m	4.3	19.7	38.0	3.94

Differentials

Highest projected players owned by under 5%

Emersonn Ipswich	£5.6m	4.9	24.5	48.0	3.6%
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	4.3	22.3	44.3	2.9%
Buendía Aston Villa	£5.9m	3.8	21.8	44.6	1.3%
Zirkzee Manchester United	£5.3m	4.8	21.2	38.7	0.4%
Marmoush Tottenham	£7.0m	3.6	21.0	40.9	1.9%
Iwobi Fulham	£5.4m	4.6	20.7	40.8	1.4%
Strand Larsen Crystal Palace	£6.0m	4.3	20.7	38.0	0.6%
N.Jackson Aston Villa	£6.6m	3.5	20.5	41.9	4.1%

Value and differentials: players at least 70% to start.

Minutes watch

Popular or highly projected players under 70% to start
			Why
Gvardiol Manchester City	65%	27.6%	pecking order
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	48%	23.2%	Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
Szoboszlai Liverpool	0%	16.7%	Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Dubravka Tottenham	2%	16.4%	started 0 of 7 available
Saka Arsenal	0%	11.5%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Semenyo Manchester City	0%	9.2%	Knee injury - Unknown return date
O'Reilly Manchester City	49%	8.8%	Back injury - 75% chance of playing
M.Sangaré Brentford	64%	6.9%	started 4 of 7 available
Hughes Crystal Palace	3%	6.1%	started 0 of 7 available
Mendy Hull	0%	5.2%	Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
Brobbey Sunderland	62%	5.2%	Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

The next ten gameweeks

Each side’s expected goals in every fixture from GW8 to GW17, darker for more goals (under 1.0, 1.0–1.5, 1.5–2.0, 2.0+). Opponents in capitals are at home.

Expected goals by fixture for the next ten gameweeks
Team	For, 5 GW	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17
Arsenal	10.4	EVE 2.2	liv 1.6	HUL 2.9	new 2.0	MCI 1.6	bre 1.8	tot 1.8	BOU 2.1	MUN 2.0	cry 2.1
Manchester City	9.6	avl 2.0	BHA 2.1	nfo 1.9	FUL 2.5	ars 1.1	LEE 2.0	bre 1.9	CHE 2.0	HUL 3.0	new 2.1
Chelsea	8.5	TOT 1.9	MUN 1.7	sun 1.5	LEE 1.7	nfo 1.6	CRY 2.3	LIV 1.7	mci 1.2	AVL 2.0	cov 2.0
Liverpool	8.4	BHA 1.8	ARS 1.2	cry 1.9	MUN 1.8	eve 1.6	SUN 1.9	che 1.5	LEE 1.8	TOT 2.0	hul 2.2
Manchester United	8.7	BOU 1.9	che 1.5	AVL 2.0	liv 1.4	BRE 1.9	new 1.8	COV 2.5	cry 1.9	ars 1.0	NFO 1.9
Brentford	8.1	hul 1.9	NFO 1.8	bha 1.4	EVE 1.8	mun 1.3	ARS 1.0	MCI 1.3	ful 1.6	NEW 1.9	ips 1.9
Tottenham	7.8	che 1.2	CRY 1.9	lee 1.2	IPS 2.1	sun 1.3	FUL 1.8	ARS 1.0	hul 1.8	liv 1.2	BOU 1.6
Leeds	6.9	sun 1.2	bou 1.2	TOT 1.5	che 1.1	COV 1.9	mci 0.9	IPS 1.9	liv 1.1	FUL 1.6	avl 1.3
Brighton	7.9	liv 1.3	mci 1.1	BRE 1.7	hul 1.9	NEW 1.9	bou 1.4	nfo 1.5	EVE 1.7	IPS 2.2	ful 1.6
Bournemouth	7.2	mun 1.2	LEE 1.4	ips 1.6	NFO 1.6	ful 1.4	BHA 1.4	HUL 2.1	ars 0.8	COV 2.0	tot 1.3
Aston Villa	7.0	MCI 1.1	FUL 1.6	mun 1.1	SUN 1.4	ips 1.6	EVE 1.5	CRY 1.8	cov 1.6	che 1.1	LEE 1.4
Sunderland	5.8	LEE 1.1	cov 1.3	CHE 1.1	avl 1.1	TOT 1.2	liv 0.9	new 1.1	NFO 1.2	CRY 1.4	eve 1.0
Newcastle	7.1	cry 1.6	EVE 1.7	ful 1.5	ARS 1.0	bha 1.3	MUN 1.5	SUN 1.6	ips 1.8	bre 1.4	MCI 1.3
Crystal Palace	6.8	NEW 1.4	tot 1.1	LIV 1.1	cov 1.4	HUL 1.7	che 1.0	avl 1.1	MUN 1.2	sun 1.0	ARS 0.8
Ipswich	6.5	NFO 1.3	hul 1.5	BOU 1.3	tot 1.1	AVL 1.4	cov 1.4	lee 1.0	NEW 1.4	bha 1.0	BRE 1.3
Fulham	6.5	cov 1.5	avl 1.2	NEW 1.5	mci 0.9	BOU 1.4	tot 1.2	eve 1.2	BRE 1.4	lee 1.1	BHA 1.3
Coventry	5.9	FUL 1.3	SUN 1.2	eve 1.0	CRY 1.4	lee 0.9	IPS 1.6	mun 0.9	AVL 1.3	bou 1.0	CHE 1.1
Everton	6.3	ars 0.7	new 1.3	COV 1.8	bre 1.2	LIV 1.3	avl 1.2	FUL 1.5	bha 1.1	nfo 1.2	SUN 1.4
Nottingham Forest	6.0	ips 1.5	bre 1.1	MCI 1.0	bou 1.1	CHE 1.3	hul 1.5	BHA 1.3	sun 1.1	EVE 1.4	mun 1.0
Hull	4.8	BRE 1.0	IPS 1.3	ars 0.5	BHA 1.0	cry 1.0	NFO 1.1	bou 0.8	TOT 1.0	mci 0.7	LIV 0.9

For the best squad over these weeks within the budget, see the optimal squad.

How this was worked out

Generated from FixtureShark’s projections (deadline snapshot) on Fri 23 Oct; nothing is written by hand. Team goals come from betting-market ratings where a price exists, otherwise from the Dixon-Coles model. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.

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